

Improving Colombia’s energy security and providing affordable costs!
How can we better adapt to two critical issues in any energy market?
-
Nature conditions
-
Geopolitical environment
Approximately time lecture:
5 minutes
Introduction
As we delve into the current state of Colombia’s energy security, we must acknowledge that enabling an economy to choose which energy source to use depending on the season and offsetting the best price due to natural and geopolitical conditions that may vary over time is an effective way of success. It allows that specific market to adapt to external and internal challenges affecting affordable costs and energy supply.
Context
In Colombia, between 65% and 70% of its energy sources are based on hydroelectric power, and you have probably heard some of the most known hydroelectric such as Hidroituango, Central hidroeléctrica del Guavio, de Chivor, Sogamoso, and San Carlos.
The current state of the Colombian energy industry is close to being under stress because recent dry seasons have put the continuation of energy supply to the entire country at risk. This dry season is anormal, which can be explained by the El Nino phenomenon, which has caused drought conditions throughout the country. In 40 years, we reached an alarming point last July and have continued to do so in August and September, reporting the lowest levels in our water inputs on the national interconnected system, according to XM.
The potential crisis ahead of us is because most of the energy input into the system comes from hydroelectric plants that base their production processes on water as the primary tool for kinetic energy. As a result, electricity is created by the constant movement of turbines and generators to convert it into hydroelectric power.
If these drought conditions persist, the Colombian government must enact the statute of destocking entitled ‘’estatuto de desabastecimiento’’ in Spanish, which is already the case under the current administration. This statute of destocking allows the government to enact the use of coal and gas to fulfill the missing supply and replace it with thermoelectric plants, which can foster the gap from hydroelectric.
As we face out from fossil fuels with no new exploration contracts signed by the current administration, our gas reserves are in decline. They can no longer accomplish the role they used to play when we had enough gas to replace hydroelectric. Having said that, Colombia is obligated to use coal as the energy fuel source for all its thermoelectric plants to maintain a steady course on its energy supply. By doing so, we are not accomplishing what the government is trying to pursue or demonstrate as a public mandate of facing out from fossil fuels. Instead, we are forcing the system to replace gas with coal to ensure prices and constant supply remain on the table.
Acknowledging the current state of the art of the Colombian energy system, we intent to understand and illustrate the best potential approach due to the current conditions that have been affecting the energy supply and how can we better adapt to two critical issues constantly present in any given energy market which are:
-
Nature conditions
-
Geopolitical environment
Colombia’s Plan 2016-2050
Colombia introduced the Energy Plan 2050 in 2016, which focused on diversifying the country's energy resources through the implementation of a reliable energy supply, including solar photovoltaic parks, wind, and geothermal power plants.
Colombia's installed electricity generation capacity is close to 18.8 GW, provided by:
-
Hydroelectrical plants
-
Gas power plants,
-
Coal power plants
-
Solar and wind plants
(1) Hydroelectric plants, a renewable source, contribute between 65% and 70 % of Colombia's total energy input. However, the lack of rain and unusual heat have led to alarming levels at the Colombian reservoirs in recent months. The average capacity of the leading 23 water reservoirs is around 50%. By the end of the year, an average reservoir water capacity of 70% is expected.
We have compiled the major hydroelectric plants around the country and their current energy capacity in the following graphic.
(2) Gas power plants supply 20% of Colombia’s energy input. The ANH announced that gas reserves for the end of 2023 dropped from 3.0 TCFs to 2.4 TCFs. Additionally, the current CEO of Ecopetrol, Ricardo Roa, has announced that Colombia will increase its gas imports. Meanwhile, gas power plants could act as transition technology toward more sustainable renewable options. Gas and coal power plants can complement each other. While coal provides stable power, gas offers a way to manage fluctuations and transition toward cleaner energy sources.
The following graphic illustrates the potential areas for gas exploration, plus oil and gas fields in sight for extraction purposes. This compiled illustration intends to enable us to address those regions where we could take advantage of past fields that have historically contributed gas to the country and continue the exploration procedure at those locations.
The following graphic illustrates the potential areas for coal exploration and extraction purposes. This compiled illustration intends to enable us to address those regions where we could take advantage of past mining fields that have historically contributed coal to the country and continue the exploitation of these areas.
We have compiled the major gas and coal plants around the country and their current energy capacity in the following graphic.
(3) Coal power plants contributed 11% of Colombia's energy input. Colombia is the country with the most significant coal reserves in South America: 17,000 Million Tons, of which 7,063 Mt are proved, 4,571 Mt are probable, 4,237 Mt are possible, and 1,119 Mt are hypothetical resources. Colombia is the fifth-largest exporter of coal in the world. In other words, with the current rate of exploitation, the coal reserves in Colombia guarantee more than 120 years of production.
In the following graphic you can recognize the regions in Colombia where Wind, Solar, and geothermal opportunities are present.
(4) According to SER Colombia, the country has great energy and solar energy potential, estimated at 30 GW and 32 GW, respectively, which is good enough to cover the already installed capacity of 18.8%. However, the installed energy capacity reported in 2022 was 290 MW (solar) and 18.4 MW (eolic), representing 1.5% and 0.1% of the installed energy capacity, respectively. In 2024, solar and wind plants (renewable sources) are reported to contribute 4% of Colombia's installed energy capacity.
Delays in the previous consultation processes, environmental licenses, and social concertation have slowed the implementation of these renewable energy sources. The country is now aware that the energy transition will take longer than expected, and the use of nonrenewable sources like oil, gas, and coal should be used responsibly, enabling progress in the implementation of renewable sources; otherwise, the country's energy system will be affected as well as the country's economy.
The upcoming Future 2050
Colombia's energy demand is estimated to increase by around 60% by 2050, with electricity and gas consumption growing faster than oil. Hopefully, most of the rise in electricity consumption will be linked to the increasing use of solar, wind, and geothermal technologies.
The development of Plan 2050 must be guided by a responsible and futuristic approach. This approach is crucial in ensuring that the country can meet its energy needs while also safeguarding its future. The plan should include a comprehensive energy security strategy, including a fossil fuel exploration plan to prevent any supply gaps for thermal plants.
Recommendations
Several difficulties have been encountered in implementing the 2050 renewable energy plan, slowing down the accomplishment of the 2050 Energy Plan for Colombia.
Given the finite lifespan of hydroelectric water reservoirs, it is imperative to continue building new reservoirs nationwide, considering sustainable rainfall patterns.
Restarting the signature of new Exploration and Production contracts is essential to ensure the gas is self-sufficient for thermoelectric plants and domestic use.
It is crucial to explore alternative energy sources, such as gas from overmature organic rocks beneath the Sabana de Bogota and/or gas from fracking well pilots in the Middle Magdalena Valley, and other potential gas fields around the country. Offshore gas reserves could take several years to attend to internal needs. They look more like potential gas export platforms for the country in the upcoming years.
Despite considering coal a high environmental impact commodity, its use for keeping the thermoelectric power-up is essential. Hydroelectric plants could run out of water; thermoelectric gas plants could run out of gas. Consequently, thermoelectric coal plants could play a crucial role in producing electrical energy, supporting any failure from the hydro and thermo gas powers.
Conclusions
Colombia is ahead in implementing renewable sources, water reservoirs, wind, and solar, which represent almost 70% of the country's installed energy capacity, 18.8 GW.
The country should continue constructing more water reservoirs and implementing more wind plants (potential capacity of 30 GW) and more solar plants (potential capacity of 32 GW). Consultation processes, environmental licenses, and social concertations should speed up to improve the timing of these processes, which could take several years ahead. Meanwhile, the country should not risk its energy efficiency; consequently, the search for gas considered the transition product in onshore and offshore areas should continue without interruption. The signature of new E and P contracts is needed to guarantee this gas supply.
Finally, the country is suffering water reservoir deficits due to a lack of rain and gas deficit supply for limited reserves (2.4 TCFs), so the need to have available coal stocks to feed the thermoelectrical plants is imperative.




